UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.