‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.